Today, investment analysts, according to online statistics, rankings this week, the automotive industry continued to show an upward trend, the three months climbed 38 bits, has leapt to the first three. In 2009, a series of favorable policies at the national director, the automotive industry ushered in a climax of the feast. Today, no one will have high growth this year, the automotive industry are skeptical. Auto industry restructuring and revitalization plan details objectives, tasks and measures are more refined, the Government has introduced a "car purchase tax cut", "car to the countryside" and new energy vehicles such as pilot cities and a number of policy subsidies. These policies benefit low-emission vehicles such as cars, light trucks, cross-type passenger strong sales.
Central Economic Work Conference 2010, China's economic work has a pointer to set the tone for the "steady growth, structural adjustment, promotional fees", central government has clearly pointed out, especially still need to expand domestic demand and promoting consumption to maintain steady and rapid economic development. As the automotive industry, high value, industry related degree, car consumption is undoubtedly an important aspect of expanding domestic demand. Based on this, has repeatedly pointed out, such as purchase tax reduction this year, "car to the countryside" and other industry incentives will remain basically unchanged and continue to 2010. Moreover, the country will introduce more such policies to further promote the automobile consumption, the whole, the automotive industry in 2010 will only be good policy of greater intensity than in 2009, wider coverage, which will continue the rapid growth of the industry provide a good policy environment.
Nearly a month since the shock structure to maintain the broader market, car plate is better than the broader market, the broader market beyond the 58 percent the past six months, nearly a month beyond the market by 7 percentage points. Significant trend in the industry over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is mainly due to early government introduced a series of policies to support the automobile consumption, and then continued to rise in car sales growth began to continuously exceed expectations, while some listed companies within the industry for a successful turnaround for the quarter earnings, most companies have good quarterly expectations. Cyclical upward trend in the automobile industry has been established, as a cyclical industry, the industry shares in the rising cycle will go to win the market. With respect to macroeconomic uncertainty, the automotive industry by a structural policies to promote higher resuscitation certainty. Although the index rose nearly six months, the industry is relatively large, but the agencies believe the industry should remain optimistic about the long-term.
From the earnings, the current market, this year's auto stocks generally optimistic to judge performance, the industry is expected to grow by 200% year on year. For next year's auto industry is expected to continue rising in the long-term business cycle phase, auto industry sales in 2010 expected to increase by about 17% of total sales in 1550-1600 between units; expected to grow about 20% of passenger cars, the most promising Basic passenger cars, SUV sub-sector, cross-type passenger growth next year may be limited. Than-expected profit growth factors or from the volume growth and structural adjustment, optimism, the performance is expected next year to "increase in volume and profit more by" the situation in which profit growth over sales growth, market integration is expected to increase in auto sector of 36% annual profit so.
The valuation of the situation from the industry, the current vehicle plates 2009, 2010, PE was 26.72 times, 20.32 times PE plates from the vehicle valuation compared with the broader point of view, basically the same plate and the market. PE valuation levels from the industry's operating history, changes in perspective, car plates can be considered a reasonable range of 20-25 times. Due to the current level of the industry's overall valuation is reasonable, to determine the automotive industry in 2010 will have more investment opportunities in band characteristics. Therefore, the involvement of patient waiting for the right time, and changes in valuation levels based on industry-band operation will be more appropriate investment strategy.
Dilute the focus on individual stocks in the industry overall investment opportunities in the automotive industry will be significantly weaker than 2009, the agency proposes to "water down the industry, focusing on individual stocks," thinking to tap investment opportunities. First of all, from the perspective of performance and estimates, there are still some companies are expected to achieve rapid growth and the valuation also has obvious advantages. In addition, the auto industry is accelerating the pace of mergers and acquisitions, new energy vehicles are already atmosphere cloud Chung, market volatility often means that the concept of the popular theme of the 2010 auto plate-type investment opportunities may be more colorful, suggest that investors more attention to investment opportunities in this area.
From the perspective of performance and estimates were: JAC (600 418), Chang'an Automobile (000625), Shanghai Automotive (market shares) (600,418), Weichai Power (market shares) (000,338) and the Chinese domain car (600 741 .)
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