Third, the high profits is bound to establish the common interests of the New Age
For consumers who can not afford to buy a car, want to drop car prices can go down to points, while the class of people who have cars, most of the expected maintenance costs longer cheaper. This allows consumers to send "hard to buy a car, keep a car more difficult," sighs.
As consumers focus on the cost of increased car use, making the car manufacturers had to high price, high-profit components surgery. Can be expected, the auto industry will move from the high profits, the current prices of motor vehicles at an annual rate of 5-8% down amendments.
This auto parts makers will inevitably be squeezed inside and outside the baptism, which makes components for manufacturers to survive, "qualify", but not actual "speaker rights." Therefore, a disadvantage position supporting manufacturers of components too much for fear of the information disclosed to the center of vendors in the price negotiation process will lead to their own interests, participation in the mentality of the automotive supply chain system will be retained on .
In the chain of supply chain system, if the depot, manufacturers, suppliers own ax to grind, not to maximize the overall interests of the common pursuit of the main purpose of the competition for exclusive direction of the whole supply chain, if vendors can not recognize this as soon as possible point, depot supply chain is bound to the common economic interests can not be established, the overall competitiveness of the supply chain there is no way to play, companies want to enter the automotive industry supply chain, like almost impossible in the dark.
Currently in Taiwan total vehicle production efficiency of about 70 million units, for example, in the market is too small and under the influence of saturation factors, only about 50% capacity utilization, resulting in the supply chain channel idle and waste of resources, full utilization of capacity and the construction of the global supply chain system is the future direction of development.
Fourth, get rid of information barriers to master supply chain information
General supply chain management requires the participation of members in many vendors, so members of the management level, willingness to participate in interactive Zhuangkuang, the supply chain will be the key to the success of the operation, the complexity of the automobile industry as a supply chain management system, upstream suppliers and the relationship between upstream and downstream distributors, must be more closely integrated, especially in the core upstream and downstream supply chain, automotive center plant, if properly managed, related to the supply chain operations.
Because components supplier management system is incomplete, there is a problem in the supply room heard, therefore, upstream and downstream suppliers, parts and components distributor for the management of quality requirements, must be to achieve consistency. For example, in automotive assembly plants supporting center of many plants, the size of some small, capital investment and personnel quality varies greatly, resulting in the automotive supply chain management difficulties, the risk of lead generation applications. Therefore, as manufacturers in the automotive supply chain, without first upgrading or changing the system of internal management and supply chain companies with professional counseling to get in the automotive supply chain management and product supply on the success.
First dismiss talk about the technical level, in the automotive supply chain in Taiwan, the increasing emphasis on "information exchange" and "participation will", which to some extent about the automotive supply chain development, it is because car manufacturers have no longer entirely in the system docking modes of supply orders directly generated, but suppliers need to know more manufacturing in the production of information, such as: key parts of the inventory, the internal production planning, problem resolution.
On the other hand, the automotive supply chain there are very weak information base of many companies, the interactive information prone to faults. The above mentioned automotive supply chain system, each level of vendor information must, also must have a management system based companies want to enter the automotive supply chain, in this regard must be more careful and thorough consideration.
Fifth, the information industry in Taiwan has great potential yet time to turn car electronics
With the rapid development of automotive electronics, automotive supply chain system will definitely get more IT information, the concern of the electronics industry manufacturers, from now to the future, a few is an inevitable trend of development. First of all, is the unique concept of supply chain problems, the information industry must be used as soon as possible with a comprehensive perspective on the automotive supply chain, and not just look at the product itself, clearly understand the particular automotive supply chain, that is "people" and "process" The complex, in improving product technology, application of the I, too, should pay attention to people's thought patterns and ideas.
Second, is to establish a strong competitive supply chain system, from the internal supply chain management system based on the main structure, this will be the business community consensus. Finally, with the foreign auto makers in Taiwan attention to car electronics, automotive supply chain will naturally improve the external environment for its development and create more favorable conditions.
Of course, this is just to enter the automotive supply chain, testing the waters just a stone in the first, in order to develop a greater profit margins, the rapid development of automotive electronics as the first contact between lovers.
Friday, December 3, 2010
Value driven automotive industry jumped three rankings
Today, investment analysts, according to online statistics, rankings this week, the automotive industry continued to show an upward trend, the three months climbed 38 bits, has leapt to the first three. In 2009, a series of favorable policies at the national director, the automotive industry ushered in a climax of the feast. Today, no one will have high growth this year, the automotive industry are skeptical. Auto industry restructuring and revitalization plan details objectives, tasks and measures are more refined, the Government has introduced a "car purchase tax cut", "car to the countryside" and new energy vehicles such as pilot cities and a number of policy subsidies. These policies benefit low-emission vehicles such as cars, light trucks, cross-type passenger strong sales.
Central Economic Work Conference 2010, China's economic work has a pointer to set the tone for the "steady growth, structural adjustment, promotional fees", central government has clearly pointed out, especially still need to expand domestic demand and promoting consumption to maintain steady and rapid economic development. As the automotive industry, high value, industry related degree, car consumption is undoubtedly an important aspect of expanding domestic demand. Based on this, has repeatedly pointed out, such as purchase tax reduction this year, "car to the countryside" and other industry incentives will remain basically unchanged and continue to 2010. Moreover, the country will introduce more such policies to further promote the automobile consumption, the whole, the automotive industry in 2010 will only be good policy of greater intensity than in 2009, wider coverage, which will continue the rapid growth of the industry provide a good policy environment.
Nearly a month since the shock structure to maintain the broader market, car plate is better than the broader market, the broader market beyond the 58 percent the past six months, nearly a month beyond the market by 7 percentage points. Significant trend in the industry over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is mainly due to early government introduced a series of policies to support the automobile consumption, and then continued to rise in car sales growth began to continuously exceed expectations, while some listed companies within the industry for a successful turnaround for the quarter earnings, most companies have good quarterly expectations. Cyclical upward trend in the automobile industry has been established, as a cyclical industry, the industry shares in the rising cycle will go to win the market. With respect to macroeconomic uncertainty, the automotive industry by a structural policies to promote higher resuscitation certainty. Although the index rose nearly six months, the industry is relatively large, but the agencies believe the industry should remain optimistic about the long-term.
From the earnings, the current market, this year's auto stocks generally optimistic to judge performance, the industry is expected to grow by 200% year on year. For next year's auto industry is expected to continue rising in the long-term business cycle phase, auto industry sales in 2010 expected to increase by about 17% of total sales in 1550-1600 between units; expected to grow about 20% of passenger cars, the most promising Basic passenger cars, SUV sub-sector, cross-type passenger growth next year may be limited. Than-expected profit growth factors or from the volume growth and structural adjustment, optimism, the performance is expected next year to "increase in volume and profit more by" the situation in which profit growth over sales growth, market integration is expected to increase in auto sector of 36% annual profit so.
The valuation of the situation from the industry, the current vehicle plates 2009, 2010, PE was 26.72 times, 20.32 times PE plates from the vehicle valuation compared with the broader point of view, basically the same plate and the market. PE valuation levels from the industry's operating history, changes in perspective, car plates can be considered a reasonable range of 20-25 times. Due to the current level of the industry's overall valuation is reasonable, to determine the automotive industry in 2010 will have more investment opportunities in band characteristics. Therefore, the involvement of patient waiting for the right time, and changes in valuation levels based on industry-band operation will be more appropriate investment strategy.
Dilute the focus on individual stocks in the industry overall investment opportunities in the automotive industry will be significantly weaker than 2009, the agency proposes to "water down the industry, focusing on individual stocks," thinking to tap investment opportunities. First of all, from the perspective of performance and estimates, there are still some companies are expected to achieve rapid growth and the valuation also has obvious advantages. In addition, the auto industry is accelerating the pace of mergers and acquisitions, new energy vehicles are already atmosphere cloud Chung, market volatility often means that the concept of the popular theme of the 2010 auto plate-type investment opportunities may be more colorful, suggest that investors more attention to investment opportunities in this area.
From the perspective of performance and estimates were: JAC (600 418), Chang'an Automobile (000625), Shanghai Automotive (market shares) (600,418), Weichai Power (market shares) (000,338) and the Chinese domain car (600 741 .)
Central Economic Work Conference 2010, China's economic work has a pointer to set the tone for the "steady growth, structural adjustment, promotional fees", central government has clearly pointed out, especially still need to expand domestic demand and promoting consumption to maintain steady and rapid economic development. As the automotive industry, high value, industry related degree, car consumption is undoubtedly an important aspect of expanding domestic demand. Based on this, has repeatedly pointed out, such as purchase tax reduction this year, "car to the countryside" and other industry incentives will remain basically unchanged and continue to 2010. Moreover, the country will introduce more such policies to further promote the automobile consumption, the whole, the automotive industry in 2010 will only be good policy of greater intensity than in 2009, wider coverage, which will continue the rapid growth of the industry provide a good policy environment.
Nearly a month since the shock structure to maintain the broader market, car plate is better than the broader market, the broader market beyond the 58 percent the past six months, nearly a month beyond the market by 7 percentage points. Significant trend in the industry over the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index is mainly due to early government introduced a series of policies to support the automobile consumption, and then continued to rise in car sales growth began to continuously exceed expectations, while some listed companies within the industry for a successful turnaround for the quarter earnings, most companies have good quarterly expectations. Cyclical upward trend in the automobile industry has been established, as a cyclical industry, the industry shares in the rising cycle will go to win the market. With respect to macroeconomic uncertainty, the automotive industry by a structural policies to promote higher resuscitation certainty. Although the index rose nearly six months, the industry is relatively large, but the agencies believe the industry should remain optimistic about the long-term.
From the earnings, the current market, this year's auto stocks generally optimistic to judge performance, the industry is expected to grow by 200% year on year. For next year's auto industry is expected to continue rising in the long-term business cycle phase, auto industry sales in 2010 expected to increase by about 17% of total sales in 1550-1600 between units; expected to grow about 20% of passenger cars, the most promising Basic passenger cars, SUV sub-sector, cross-type passenger growth next year may be limited. Than-expected profit growth factors or from the volume growth and structural adjustment, optimism, the performance is expected next year to "increase in volume and profit more by" the situation in which profit growth over sales growth, market integration is expected to increase in auto sector of 36% annual profit so.
The valuation of the situation from the industry, the current vehicle plates 2009, 2010, PE was 26.72 times, 20.32 times PE plates from the vehicle valuation compared with the broader point of view, basically the same plate and the market. PE valuation levels from the industry's operating history, changes in perspective, car plates can be considered a reasonable range of 20-25 times. Due to the current level of the industry's overall valuation is reasonable, to determine the automotive industry in 2010 will have more investment opportunities in band characteristics. Therefore, the involvement of patient waiting for the right time, and changes in valuation levels based on industry-band operation will be more appropriate investment strategy.
Dilute the focus on individual stocks in the industry overall investment opportunities in the automotive industry will be significantly weaker than 2009, the agency proposes to "water down the industry, focusing on individual stocks," thinking to tap investment opportunities. First of all, from the perspective of performance and estimates, there are still some companies are expected to achieve rapid growth and the valuation also has obvious advantages. In addition, the auto industry is accelerating the pace of mergers and acquisitions, new energy vehicles are already atmosphere cloud Chung, market volatility often means that the concept of the popular theme of the 2010 auto plate-type investment opportunities may be more colorful, suggest that investors more attention to investment opportunities in this area.
From the perspective of performance and estimates were: JAC (600 418), Chang'an Automobile (000625), Shanghai Automotive (market shares) (600,418), Weichai Power (market shares) (000,338) and the Chinese domain car (600 741 .)
Automotive Industry: Focusing on the value of long-term growth of the leading stocks
Slightly better than the commercial passenger boom, the market structure in polarization
Seasonal factors and determined policies to promote economic slightly better than the commercial passenger vehicle, passenger car sales in August 2010 1,019,000, growth of 7.69%; commercial vehicle sales of 303,300, the Central than 1.83%. Meanwhile, demand for personalized promote gradual change in consumption structure, but also means that close to the market demand for products and businesses will fully benefit in the competition, the Volkswagen passenger car market in the narrow line with the general lines significantly increase market share in 2010 August Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW Volkswagen, Shanghai GM's market share reached 28.90%, the relative increase of 3.73 percentage points last year.
The industry's inventory is reasonable, "Kim nine silver ten" will proceed as planned
And to the current vehicle inventory cycle in August 57 days, of which passenger cars inventory cycle is 58 days.
We believe that the current state of the industry at a reasonable inventory and equipment manufacturers with the August inspection, the market inventory during the heating process is expected to remain stable. Before the third installment of "energy-saving products and projects that benefit" the directory has been published to promote energy-efficient cars with the policies we believe further guidance, sales of own brand will be further improved. Meanwhile, driven by domestic consumption upgrade, the demand for high-end market is expected to remain warm. We believe that passenger car market, "Kim nine silver ten" will Ruqierzhi. At the same time, we determine the course of heating demand in the market, the market price is expected to remain stable.
Concerned about the long-term growth of the value of leading shares
Logic of our investment in the industry is divided into three phases: the first phase of the medium-term strategy based on industry PE of about 8 times the valuation given to fix the valuation of the industry, providing the margin of safety to judge performance, the industry rating from "hold" adjusted to "buy"; the second stage, the terminal on the market based on our tracking of sales to determine the cut subsidies will drive the industry to the economy up by the valuation of repair; now in its third stage of the industry, we believe that the wealth effect can continue to promote the industry, optimize the product structure, leading to performance-than-expected growth is the focus of our concern, and the wealth effect is with the domestic stock market and real estate are closely related.
We are the market segments based on structural changes in the industry, and industry policies to guide the analysis, still choose a safety margin and the presence of event-driven company, including benefits in the passenger car market with new energy and industry, and the theme of Chinese domain car purchase ; gradual increase in the passenger car market share in the Shanghai automobile.
Risk Warning: systemic risk and policy guide below our expectations.
Seasonal factors and determined policies to promote economic slightly better than the commercial passenger vehicle, passenger car sales in August 2010 1,019,000, growth of 7.69%; commercial vehicle sales of 303,300, the Central than 1.83%. Meanwhile, demand for personalized promote gradual change in consumption structure, but also means that close to the market demand for products and businesses will fully benefit in the competition, the Volkswagen passenger car market in the narrow line with the general lines significantly increase market share in 2010 August Shanghai Volkswagen, FAW Volkswagen, Shanghai GM's market share reached 28.90%, the relative increase of 3.73 percentage points last year.
The industry's inventory is reasonable, "Kim nine silver ten" will proceed as planned
And to the current vehicle inventory cycle in August 57 days, of which passenger cars inventory cycle is 58 days.
We believe that the current state of the industry at a reasonable inventory and equipment manufacturers with the August inspection, the market inventory during the heating process is expected to remain stable. Before the third installment of "energy-saving products and projects that benefit" the directory has been published to promote energy-efficient cars with the policies we believe further guidance, sales of own brand will be further improved. Meanwhile, driven by domestic consumption upgrade, the demand for high-end market is expected to remain warm. We believe that passenger car market, "Kim nine silver ten" will Ruqierzhi. At the same time, we determine the course of heating demand in the market, the market price is expected to remain stable.
Concerned about the long-term growth of the value of leading shares
Logic of our investment in the industry is divided into three phases: the first phase of the medium-term strategy based on industry PE of about 8 times the valuation given to fix the valuation of the industry, providing the margin of safety to judge performance, the industry rating from "hold" adjusted to "buy"; the second stage, the terminal on the market based on our tracking of sales to determine the cut subsidies will drive the industry to the economy up by the valuation of repair; now in its third stage of the industry, we believe that the wealth effect can continue to promote the industry, optimize the product structure, leading to performance-than-expected growth is the focus of our concern, and the wealth effect is with the domestic stock market and real estate are closely related.
We are the market segments based on structural changes in the industry, and industry policies to guide the analysis, still choose a safety margin and the presence of event-driven company, including benefits in the passenger car market with new energy and industry, and the theme of Chinese domain car purchase ; gradual increase in the passenger car market share in the Shanghai automobile.
Risk Warning: systemic risk and policy guide below our expectations.
Integration of the domestic auto industry value chain break
Every winter comes, geese flying south, always together, because the solo is almost zero probability of success.
The financial crisis in the auto industry, "winter", the car prices alone will not sustain high probability. Even the Detroit Big Three auto companies are facing the test of survival, let alone the young German auto industry group.
As with most long chain of automotive industry, in the winter comes, only to find their own partners, to integrate themselves into a stable value chain and achieve win-win cooperation, be possible to get through this bleak "winter." Because, as long as the automotive industry value chain constant hope of survival will not be dashed.
Baotuan winter become the mainstream of the current auto industry term, the newspaper planned for this special "how to bundle the automotive industry," winter, "" project, we do not simply start from the car manufacturers, we are more concerned about the automobile industry chain linkage between each other, would hope in the winter to explore the path of the automobile industry.
How to weather the financial crisis of unknown duration of the "winter"? "Business ecosystem" in the upstream and downstream enterprises are realizing the power on its own is clearly not enough to "cooperative game" revitalize the idea of the resources, after all, a good way to resist the cold.
"Upstream up to 156 vehicles, including automotive industry is the direct needs of the largest major mechanical manufacturing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rubber processing industry, in addition to raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and textiles." State Information Center, Information Resources Development Department, said Xu Changming, director.
In the downstream industry, auto companies have linkage with the logistics industry, understand the professional logistics service providers to help them achieve integration of resources to improve the efficiency of manufacturing operations, to promote the benefits of the appreciation of the value chain.
Dongfeng Motor Corporation Di Xiaojiang, director of business platform that the current vehicle's selling price and net profit are significantly reduced, to OEMs as the core upstream and downstream organically partners, including procurement, production, design, sales and other business integration into a high value, high-efficient procurement and supply chain will be the key to the future development of automobile industry.
In fact, in a mature car market, vehicle manufacturing, the profitability of downstream industries was higher than the vehicle manufacturing industry itself. Management consulting firm AT Kearney Global 103 listed company's financial position auto survey showed that the global auto parts manufacturing business investment cash return of about 9%, about 10% of automotive marketing services, parts retailers about 13%, while only 5% of vehicle manufacturing.
Auto companies have been keen smell of the industrial integration of upstream and downstream business opportunities. Ma, chairman of the German heavy truck pure economic respect, in order to strengthen and expand the heavy-duty commercial vehicle industry, the next step will be to extend the industrial chain ends of a breakthrough, especially the effectiveness of closely related industries with higher returns, "such as the recent heavy truck stake property to be set up insurance company in Shandong Province, plans to develop commercial insurance services. "
In fact, at the initial stage of the German car industry has been plunged into the low-income, high-profit self-satisfied state. In 2002 the domestic automobile industry realized profits of 43.1 billion, the industry's average profit margin of up to 28.45%. 13, 2004 SAIC and other automotive industry is still state-owned enterprises to achieve 6% annual profit. However, the level of the global automotive industry average profit margin of only 3% to 5%. German automotive industry this high-margin, value chain so that it does not need to strengthen the development of potential resources to be able to get good returns.
Until the last two years, with the competition, the domestic auto industry will gradually return to normal, no longer a lucrative industry, automobile manufacturing enterprises in Germany last year, the industry average profit margin to 4.5%.
Despite the cold in order to resist this, the domestic automobile industry for the integration of upstream and downstream value chain appears a rare breakthrough, but with the world automotive giants are doing everything possible to improve the coordination efficiency, expanding profit margins compared to, but it can only be just beginning.
The financial crisis in the auto industry, "winter", the car prices alone will not sustain high probability. Even the Detroit Big Three auto companies are facing the test of survival, let alone the young German auto industry group.
As with most long chain of automotive industry, in the winter comes, only to find their own partners, to integrate themselves into a stable value chain and achieve win-win cooperation, be possible to get through this bleak "winter." Because, as long as the automotive industry value chain constant hope of survival will not be dashed.
Baotuan winter become the mainstream of the current auto industry term, the newspaper planned for this special "how to bundle the automotive industry," winter, "" project, we do not simply start from the car manufacturers, we are more concerned about the automobile industry chain linkage between each other, would hope in the winter to explore the path of the automobile industry.
How to weather the financial crisis of unknown duration of the "winter"? "Business ecosystem" in the upstream and downstream enterprises are realizing the power on its own is clearly not enough to "cooperative game" revitalize the idea of the resources, after all, a good way to resist the cold.
"Upstream up to 156 vehicles, including automotive industry is the direct needs of the largest major mechanical manufacturing industry, ferrous metal smelting and rubber processing industry, in addition to raw materials and chemical products manufacturing, and textiles." State Information Center, Information Resources Development Department, said Xu Changming, director.
In the downstream industry, auto companies have linkage with the logistics industry, understand the professional logistics service providers to help them achieve integration of resources to improve the efficiency of manufacturing operations, to promote the benefits of the appreciation of the value chain.
Dongfeng Motor Corporation Di Xiaojiang, director of business platform that the current vehicle's selling price and net profit are significantly reduced, to OEMs as the core upstream and downstream organically partners, including procurement, production, design, sales and other business integration into a high value, high-efficient procurement and supply chain will be the key to the future development of automobile industry.
In fact, in a mature car market, vehicle manufacturing, the profitability of downstream industries was higher than the vehicle manufacturing industry itself. Management consulting firm AT Kearney Global 103 listed company's financial position auto survey showed that the global auto parts manufacturing business investment cash return of about 9%, about 10% of automotive marketing services, parts retailers about 13%, while only 5% of vehicle manufacturing.
Auto companies have been keen smell of the industrial integration of upstream and downstream business opportunities. Ma, chairman of the German heavy truck pure economic respect, in order to strengthen and expand the heavy-duty commercial vehicle industry, the next step will be to extend the industrial chain ends of a breakthrough, especially the effectiveness of closely related industries with higher returns, "such as the recent heavy truck stake property to be set up insurance company in Shandong Province, plans to develop commercial insurance services. "
In fact, at the initial stage of the German car industry has been plunged into the low-income, high-profit self-satisfied state. In 2002 the domestic automobile industry realized profits of 43.1 billion, the industry's average profit margin of up to 28.45%. 13, 2004 SAIC and other automotive industry is still state-owned enterprises to achieve 6% annual profit. However, the level of the global automotive industry average profit margin of only 3% to 5%. German automotive industry this high-margin, value chain so that it does not need to strengthen the development of potential resources to be able to get good returns.
Until the last two years, with the competition, the domestic auto industry will gradually return to normal, no longer a lucrative industry, automobile manufacturing enterprises in Germany last year, the industry average profit margin to 4.5%.
Despite the cold in order to resist this, the domestic automobile industry for the integration of upstream and downstream value chain appears a rare breakthrough, but with the world automotive giants are doing everything possible to improve the coordination efficiency, expanding profit margins compared to, but it can only be just beginning.
car trade industry special report: Qimao leading the development of a large space, with high investment value
4S shop in the automotive industry, the main business model of trade. German automotive trade industry experienced a planned economy era and the era of multi-level marketing, brand monopoly current stage in the single-stage, 4S stores as the main mode of operation at this stage, car trade zone model is the 4S shop model to add.
Qimao industry's profitability model. New car sales business, foreign brands, a joint venture brand and own brand high to low gross margins; after-sales services accounted for revenue and profit contribution will gradually increase, the gross margin is expected to continue to remain high; Qimao evolving industry new car sales basis, after-sales business for profit growth, and other business development for the strategic direction of the multi-level business development model.
Automobile trade industry leaders still have room for development. Though faced with the interests of the game with the OEMs, but the automobile trade industry leading companies today are still large room for development, on the one hand from the existing store sales increased car ownership has brought rapid growth of after-sales service, on the other hand automobile trade Group is expected to lead gradually to the country by the regional expansion of the network channels will also continue to sink, the expansion is the acquisition of the Main Line.
Automobile trade industry is expected to form a cluster effect. Automobile trade is a critical factor of business financial strength and liquidity ratio, cash flow rate depends on experience and management level. If listed, the company can use financing platform to expand and reduce the cost of capital funds; public financing while offering platform as the company's future acquisition of new stores and to provide a solid foundation for the industry, auto industry trade A shares in such companies is expected to form a cluster effect.
Auto trade industry optimistic about the long-term, valuations may refer to retail sales, peak Heavenly, the large share of shares and A shares the main building investment targets: on the automobile trade industry, we believe that future investment in the field of automotive industry an important part of the one, but in the valuation, we believe that steady growth in automobile trade earnings characteristics similar to commercial retail, according to the valuation of commercial retail and relatively reasonable valuation levels. A share market is currently the main target for the peak Heavenly (600 335), the large shares (600,704) and building shares (600327), H-share market including the rise Holdings (00881), Dah Chong Hong Holdings (01828).
Risk Warning: the automotive industry sales lagged behind expectations; industry competition led to the overall profitability levels.
Qimao industry's profitability model. New car sales business, foreign brands, a joint venture brand and own brand high to low gross margins; after-sales services accounted for revenue and profit contribution will gradually increase, the gross margin is expected to continue to remain high; Qimao evolving industry new car sales basis, after-sales business for profit growth, and other business development for the strategic direction of the multi-level business development model.
Automobile trade industry leaders still have room for development. Though faced with the interests of the game with the OEMs, but the automobile trade industry leading companies today are still large room for development, on the one hand from the existing store sales increased car ownership has brought rapid growth of after-sales service, on the other hand automobile trade Group is expected to lead gradually to the country by the regional expansion of the network channels will also continue to sink, the expansion is the acquisition of the Main Line.
Automobile trade industry is expected to form a cluster effect. Automobile trade is a critical factor of business financial strength and liquidity ratio, cash flow rate depends on experience and management level. If listed, the company can use financing platform to expand and reduce the cost of capital funds; public financing while offering platform as the company's future acquisition of new stores and to provide a solid foundation for the industry, auto industry trade A shares in such companies is expected to form a cluster effect.
Auto trade industry optimistic about the long-term, valuations may refer to retail sales, peak Heavenly, the large share of shares and A shares the main building investment targets: on the automobile trade industry, we believe that future investment in the field of automotive industry an important part of the one, but in the valuation, we believe that steady growth in automobile trade earnings characteristics similar to commercial retail, according to the valuation of commercial retail and relatively reasonable valuation levels. A share market is currently the main target for the peak Heavenly (600 335), the large shares (600,704) and building shares (600327), H-share market including the rise Holdings (00881), Dah Chong Hong Holdings (01828).
Risk Warning: the automotive industry sales lagged behind expectations; industry competition led to the overall profitability levels.
Seize the opportunity to achieve the automotive industry value chain to grow
Auto market for the future, I can use an overview of this sentence: Short-term pains of adjustment, long-term stability and development, market structure changes, challenges opportunities. Why do I say?
(A) by the global crisis and the slowing U.S. economy, the combined effect of trends, the U.S. auto market growth in 2008 declined
May 1-10, 2008 U.S. vehicle output 8.01 million, an increase of 11.01%, of which: total 5.7 million passenger cars, commercial vehicles total 2.31 million, both the growth rate is 11%. 550 000 vehicle exports the first three quarters, an increase of 35%.
Forecast at the beginning of 2008 the U.S. auto market will reach a ten million, but the current situation has been difficult to achieve, is expected to total 950 million vehicles, an increase of 8%. This growth rate will be from China's accession to the World Trade Organization seven years, the lowest growth rate for one year. Inflection point decline in the market in July, 7-October auto market grew only 1.9%. Decline is mainly due to the global economic crisis and U.S. economic slowdown. But in all market segments, the main factors are different. In the passenger car market, is due to the stock market, housing market downturn, reducing property income consumers, consumption is expected to decline due. The commercial vehicle market, the decline in investment was mainly the third year of policy implementation and increased costs caused by car caused.
Fourth quarter, the state promulgated a series of measures to boost U.S. economic growth, which will bring good news in 2009, but not stop the phenomenon of global crisis, the world economic recovery is not just around the corner, so we have to fully assess or even 2009 tough market conditions in 2010, to enhance collaboration and achieve win-win situation.
(B) of the U.S. auto market in the future there will be nearly 10 years of steady growth
While the U.S. auto market in the short term adjustments to the growth rate decreased, but the U.S. auto market of the future is bright. International economic downturn, but the U.S. economy is basically running well, the future is still the world's fastest growing economies, and in later years the main driver of world economy. U.S. auto industry in such a favorable economic environment, there must be a better development. Also recently introduced a variety of countries to stimulate the economy, stimulating domestic demand will also promote the development of the automotive market. Also, learn from the United States, Japan, Korea and other countries in the automotive development of the market point of view, each country's auto market to go through a 13 to 15 years of rapid growth, then before entering the saturation stage. Since 2002, the U.S. auto market began to enter the period of rapid growth, market size in 2015 is expected to reach 15 million, the future market potential.
(C) a variety of factors have contributed to changes in the structure of the automobile industry
Changes in the structure of the automobile industry mainly in the following areas:
1, due to international competition and national policies need to improve regulations and standards, energy saving, low emission of high-tech products become mainstream. The vigorous development of gas vehicles, high pressure common rail technology, and so a large number of applications to promote the automobile industry has become the main force structure changes. With the U.S. auto market globalization, international competition, the future product needs to be more environmentally friendly, more energy efficient, meet such conditions, the product is the future of the mainstream auto market.
2, due to rising levels of consumption and production activities, the greater degree of socialization, the user the comfort of automotive products, professional, personalized put forward higher requirements. The comfort of a car truck, special purpose vehicles and other more specialized sub-models to meet the increasing user demands. The SUV, for example, the original SUV is the civilian version of military off-road vehicles. However, with social development, the different requirements of people's lives, and now the SUV has evolved various types of sub-models. City-based SUV has been more like a car rather than off-road car. Therefore, competition is the future of automotive products, competition in the market segment.
3, to enhance product quality and market competitiveness, the vehicle will move toward the joint development and parts, vehicle and parts manufacturing companies of the Group of integration intensified. In many models, are joint research and development, joint testing, making the optimal performance of the vehicle, make our products more competitive with the market. For example, towards the wood, the firewood, Xichai early last century were added Dongfeng and FAW, and as Weichai holding Shaanxi Auto, Heavy Duty Truck reorganization of large teeth, Fukuda acquisition of Tianjin platinum Hopkins can be found a series of events, vehicle and spare parts to the joint development, to the Group is an inevitable trend.
4, social competition has entered the competitive era of Standards and Technology, the future competitiveness of enterprises depends on the core technology of control. Country, three engines currently used in common rail system technology, and understanding to Dr. giant Denso hands of foreign-based U.S. companies to pay a huge amount of diesel engine research and development costs of procurement, it has become more advanced enterprises in the U.S. diesel engine emissions are difficult to break through the threshold. Therefore, competition is the foreseeable future, innovative technology companies competitive, but also the core technology of controlled competition.
(D) changes in the automotive market will occur, urgent need to enhance the quality of service
Mature from foreign car market, the sales profit 50% to 60% generated in the services sector, the U.S. car market will accomplish much. Huge cake attract foreign supermarket chains aggressively the car hit the United States. For example, the largest U.S. auto parts chain NAPA, the world's largest chain of auto repair businesses AC Decaux United States has entered the United States, Bosch has 150 service stations, Japan's largest automotive supplies Autobacs plans to invest 10 billion yen open 100 stores in the United States. Services to corporate brands, chain, standardization into the mainstream, the U.S. car market will have turned upside down, Competition among enterprises in the future will be the true quality of service and other "soft power."
Developed for urban and rural development and urban car ownership saturation and other factors, automobile manufacturers have begun to look to second and third tier markets, suggesting that auto sales channels will also be changes taking place, the current brands as the preferred mode of 4S stores faced with changes in input is too large, some more suitable for less-affluent market, new sales shop will gradually become the mainstream. For example: 2S + A ("2S" refers to the parts + service, "A" refers to sales) model, the degree to enhance the brand with flagship stores in the community, equipped with outlets dominate the market, recruiting franchise, leveraging the small dealers to enter second and third tier cities.
Great Environment Challenges and Opportunities
The survival of this background and the environment, what will give us what kind of opportunities and challenges, I am here, "initiate", please discuss.
(A) opportunities
1, the U.S. market has great potential. With the U.S. into the development process of automotive society progresses, the expected size of the U.S. auto market by 2020 will reach or more than 17 million, will become the world's largest automobile consumer market. At the same time the rapid development of export markets, the U.S. auto giant in the international market development. The engine's versatility makes it great potential in many fields, such as construction machinery, generators, water pumps, engines and other industries have a good market.
2, the State introduced various positive measures to maintain economic growth, promote steady development of the automotive market. State-intensive measures to stimulate domestic demand, the introduction of a number of positive, increasing construction of major projects, will promote trucks and construction machinery rapid development. With the integration of urban infrastructure and urban and rural building for passenger transport, construction vehicles, special vehicles and rapid development. Vigorously develop the rural economy in recent years, allowing the free transfer of land will make some people freed from the land, in urban and rural areas of logistics, speed up the town's light trucks development. Meanwhile, energy conservation is already a political task, which will promote the rapid development around the gas power.
3, changes in industry structure and economic restructuring auto industry, to have the core competitiveness of enterprises to provide a rapid development of space. Changes in industry structure and economic restructuring of the automobile industry to promote competition in the U.S. auto market by the quantity and quality of the competition, transformed into technology, standards, brand competition. Global competition, to promote fast-track "development of new technologies, the application of new standards," the brand enterprises in the competition, as competition winners.
(B) the challenges
1, more stringent policies and regulations, industry standards for the automotive market has been increasing. As we all know, this year the state the third year implementation of N2 category vehicles emissions, the implementation of the country next year, three-N1 class vehicles emissions, the implementation of national plans for the country in 2010 four standards, more and more into the ladder of this national policy will lead to speed up the auto market industry standards upgrades. In addition, the state will further introduce a "minimum fuel consumption limits" and a series of policies and regulations, which will drive the engine as soon as possible to enhance the industry standard, but also face greater challenges.
2, with the market demand for more professional, personality development, market competition is further broken down. Changes in regional industrial structure, causing changes in the regional automobile market structure, customer demand becomes more specialized and personalized. Such as rural urbanization, village bus rapid development. Such as the wind off the end of the first to seize this market opportunity in the 6590 chassis to achieve rapid growth. Find new market segments, develop professional, personalized products, it is competitive enterprises in the future victory of the weapon.
3, international competition, access to a substantial increase in the cost of advanced technology. Decline in global economic development, growth, decline in demand will follow, which will lead to international competition in the automotive industry is more intensified. Developed countries in order to protect their own interests, but also will increase the more technical fortress, the U.S. advanced technology R & D costs will increase, the ability to control the core technology blocked.
(C) Countermeasures
1, calmly and with confidence. The financial crisis is the worst since 1929, once, we must fully understand its global economy. At the same time, we should also feel the U.S. government to rescue the market confidence and determination. Premier Wen Jiabao refueling for the PRD, said: "If winter comes, can spring be far behind? Important to have confidence to win, want to 'spring' to prepare for the arrival of morning! But also to advance the development of long-term business plan strategy. "Meanwhile, the U.S. had just entered the car society, car market, there will be a long-term growth trend, the U.S. auto market is still much room for growth. Recently introduced policy of stimulating domestic demand, encourage consumption and increase in vehicle infrastructure, and gradually speed up the industrialization and urbanization of the United States the development process, these measures have promoted the rapid development of the automotive market. As an enterprise to calmly deal with, and actively look for development opportunities and space to develop long-term development plan, with conviction, through the temporary difficulties, long-term development for the future and make unremitting efforts.
2, to adapt to new patterns, to challenge the new standard. From "America" to "American Creation", generating new competitive landscape, the new industry standard for enterprise development has brought new challenges. The new competitive landscape requires us to improve the control of core technology, requires constant innovation, and "American Creation" is the core of innovation. Business competition is already competing technologies and standards, the first to introduce products to meet the new situation, who will be market opportunities, technological innovation is the enterprise survival and development of the relentless pursuit. Enterprises should understand the situation, in the development model and the market structure adjustment, innovation, enhance the management capacity, enhance product quality and brand image, increase the international competitiveness of enterprises, savings for the upcoming spring force, as next lay the foundation for rapid development.
3, found to lead marketing, segmentation to find blue ocean. Every business wants to compete in the blue ocean environment, especially in the context of the financial crisis, how to increase market share, reduce competition, resistance, is our common wish. The new competitive landscape, lead to a new competitive situation, the new market demand, proliferation of new market segments. How to find new market demands, and how fast to adapt to the new product segment of the market, it is the premise of corporate competitive advantage to master, but also the development of enterprises to develop blue ocean strategy. Enterprises should fully understand and grasp the trend of economic development and trade policies and regulations on the automotive sector of the market impact of the timely detection of customers personalized, professional needs, develop products to meet customer needs in order to seize the market as fast as the first machine.
4, to strengthen joint cooperation, and enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises. With economic globalization, accelerating the globalization of markets, foreign competitors have moved into the United States, companies will be global competition. However, we now participate in international competition, there are still relatively backward technology, lack of management experience and financial strength of the gap. How to seize the opportunity, overcome challenges, it is we have to think about. America's huge market size, resource integration and globalization, the increasingly important U.S. market, domestic enterprises to actively adapt to the new market situation, and strive to develop multi-seeking opportunities to develop the level of the introduction of foreign advanced technology and management experience enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises.
(A) by the global crisis and the slowing U.S. economy, the combined effect of trends, the U.S. auto market growth in 2008 declined
May 1-10, 2008 U.S. vehicle output 8.01 million, an increase of 11.01%, of which: total 5.7 million passenger cars, commercial vehicles total 2.31 million, both the growth rate is 11%. 550 000 vehicle exports the first three quarters, an increase of 35%.
Forecast at the beginning of 2008 the U.S. auto market will reach a ten million, but the current situation has been difficult to achieve, is expected to total 950 million vehicles, an increase of 8%. This growth rate will be from China's accession to the World Trade Organization seven years, the lowest growth rate for one year. Inflection point decline in the market in July, 7-October auto market grew only 1.9%. Decline is mainly due to the global economic crisis and U.S. economic slowdown. But in all market segments, the main factors are different. In the passenger car market, is due to the stock market, housing market downturn, reducing property income consumers, consumption is expected to decline due. The commercial vehicle market, the decline in investment was mainly the third year of policy implementation and increased costs caused by car caused.
Fourth quarter, the state promulgated a series of measures to boost U.S. economic growth, which will bring good news in 2009, but not stop the phenomenon of global crisis, the world economic recovery is not just around the corner, so we have to fully assess or even 2009 tough market conditions in 2010, to enhance collaboration and achieve win-win situation.
(B) of the U.S. auto market in the future there will be nearly 10 years of steady growth
While the U.S. auto market in the short term adjustments to the growth rate decreased, but the U.S. auto market of the future is bright. International economic downturn, but the U.S. economy is basically running well, the future is still the world's fastest growing economies, and in later years the main driver of world economy. U.S. auto industry in such a favorable economic environment, there must be a better development. Also recently introduced a variety of countries to stimulate the economy, stimulating domestic demand will also promote the development of the automotive market. Also, learn from the United States, Japan, Korea and other countries in the automotive development of the market point of view, each country's auto market to go through a 13 to 15 years of rapid growth, then before entering the saturation stage. Since 2002, the U.S. auto market began to enter the period of rapid growth, market size in 2015 is expected to reach 15 million, the future market potential.
(C) a variety of factors have contributed to changes in the structure of the automobile industry
Changes in the structure of the automobile industry mainly in the following areas:
1, due to international competition and national policies need to improve regulations and standards, energy saving, low emission of high-tech products become mainstream. The vigorous development of gas vehicles, high pressure common rail technology, and so a large number of applications to promote the automobile industry has become the main force structure changes. With the U.S. auto market globalization, international competition, the future product needs to be more environmentally friendly, more energy efficient, meet such conditions, the product is the future of the mainstream auto market.
2, due to rising levels of consumption and production activities, the greater degree of socialization, the user the comfort of automotive products, professional, personalized put forward higher requirements. The comfort of a car truck, special purpose vehicles and other more specialized sub-models to meet the increasing user demands. The SUV, for example, the original SUV is the civilian version of military off-road vehicles. However, with social development, the different requirements of people's lives, and now the SUV has evolved various types of sub-models. City-based SUV has been more like a car rather than off-road car. Therefore, competition is the future of automotive products, competition in the market segment.
3, to enhance product quality and market competitiveness, the vehicle will move toward the joint development and parts, vehicle and parts manufacturing companies of the Group of integration intensified. In many models, are joint research and development, joint testing, making the optimal performance of the vehicle, make our products more competitive with the market. For example, towards the wood, the firewood, Xichai early last century were added Dongfeng and FAW, and as Weichai holding Shaanxi Auto, Heavy Duty Truck reorganization of large teeth, Fukuda acquisition of Tianjin platinum Hopkins can be found a series of events, vehicle and spare parts to the joint development, to the Group is an inevitable trend.
4, social competition has entered the competitive era of Standards and Technology, the future competitiveness of enterprises depends on the core technology of control. Country, three engines currently used in common rail system technology, and understanding to Dr. giant Denso hands of foreign-based U.S. companies to pay a huge amount of diesel engine research and development costs of procurement, it has become more advanced enterprises in the U.S. diesel engine emissions are difficult to break through the threshold. Therefore, competition is the foreseeable future, innovative technology companies competitive, but also the core technology of controlled competition.
(D) changes in the automotive market will occur, urgent need to enhance the quality of service
Mature from foreign car market, the sales profit 50% to 60% generated in the services sector, the U.S. car market will accomplish much. Huge cake attract foreign supermarket chains aggressively the car hit the United States. For example, the largest U.S. auto parts chain NAPA, the world's largest chain of auto repair businesses AC Decaux United States has entered the United States, Bosch has 150 service stations, Japan's largest automotive supplies Autobacs plans to invest 10 billion yen open 100 stores in the United States. Services to corporate brands, chain, standardization into the mainstream, the U.S. car market will have turned upside down, Competition among enterprises in the future will be the true quality of service and other "soft power."
Developed for urban and rural development and urban car ownership saturation and other factors, automobile manufacturers have begun to look to second and third tier markets, suggesting that auto sales channels will also be changes taking place, the current brands as the preferred mode of 4S stores faced with changes in input is too large, some more suitable for less-affluent market, new sales shop will gradually become the mainstream. For example: 2S + A ("2S" refers to the parts + service, "A" refers to sales) model, the degree to enhance the brand with flagship stores in the community, equipped with outlets dominate the market, recruiting franchise, leveraging the small dealers to enter second and third tier cities.
Great Environment Challenges and Opportunities
The survival of this background and the environment, what will give us what kind of opportunities and challenges, I am here, "initiate", please discuss.
(A) opportunities
1, the U.S. market has great potential. With the U.S. into the development process of automotive society progresses, the expected size of the U.S. auto market by 2020 will reach or more than 17 million, will become the world's largest automobile consumer market. At the same time the rapid development of export markets, the U.S. auto giant in the international market development. The engine's versatility makes it great potential in many fields, such as construction machinery, generators, water pumps, engines and other industries have a good market.
2, the State introduced various positive measures to maintain economic growth, promote steady development of the automotive market. State-intensive measures to stimulate domestic demand, the introduction of a number of positive, increasing construction of major projects, will promote trucks and construction machinery rapid development. With the integration of urban infrastructure and urban and rural building for passenger transport, construction vehicles, special vehicles and rapid development. Vigorously develop the rural economy in recent years, allowing the free transfer of land will make some people freed from the land, in urban and rural areas of logistics, speed up the town's light trucks development. Meanwhile, energy conservation is already a political task, which will promote the rapid development around the gas power.
3, changes in industry structure and economic restructuring auto industry, to have the core competitiveness of enterprises to provide a rapid development of space. Changes in industry structure and economic restructuring of the automobile industry to promote competition in the U.S. auto market by the quantity and quality of the competition, transformed into technology, standards, brand competition. Global competition, to promote fast-track "development of new technologies, the application of new standards," the brand enterprises in the competition, as competition winners.
(B) the challenges
1, more stringent policies and regulations, industry standards for the automotive market has been increasing. As we all know, this year the state the third year implementation of N2 category vehicles emissions, the implementation of the country next year, three-N1 class vehicles emissions, the implementation of national plans for the country in 2010 four standards, more and more into the ladder of this national policy will lead to speed up the auto market industry standards upgrades. In addition, the state will further introduce a "minimum fuel consumption limits" and a series of policies and regulations, which will drive the engine as soon as possible to enhance the industry standard, but also face greater challenges.
2, with the market demand for more professional, personality development, market competition is further broken down. Changes in regional industrial structure, causing changes in the regional automobile market structure, customer demand becomes more specialized and personalized. Such as rural urbanization, village bus rapid development. Such as the wind off the end of the first to seize this market opportunity in the 6590 chassis to achieve rapid growth. Find new market segments, develop professional, personalized products, it is competitive enterprises in the future victory of the weapon.
3, international competition, access to a substantial increase in the cost of advanced technology. Decline in global economic development, growth, decline in demand will follow, which will lead to international competition in the automotive industry is more intensified. Developed countries in order to protect their own interests, but also will increase the more technical fortress, the U.S. advanced technology R & D costs will increase, the ability to control the core technology blocked.
(C) Countermeasures
1, calmly and with confidence. The financial crisis is the worst since 1929, once, we must fully understand its global economy. At the same time, we should also feel the U.S. government to rescue the market confidence and determination. Premier Wen Jiabao refueling for the PRD, said: "If winter comes, can spring be far behind? Important to have confidence to win, want to 'spring' to prepare for the arrival of morning! But also to advance the development of long-term business plan strategy. "Meanwhile, the U.S. had just entered the car society, car market, there will be a long-term growth trend, the U.S. auto market is still much room for growth. Recently introduced policy of stimulating domestic demand, encourage consumption and increase in vehicle infrastructure, and gradually speed up the industrialization and urbanization of the United States the development process, these measures have promoted the rapid development of the automotive market. As an enterprise to calmly deal with, and actively look for development opportunities and space to develop long-term development plan, with conviction, through the temporary difficulties, long-term development for the future and make unremitting efforts.
2, to adapt to new patterns, to challenge the new standard. From "America" to "American Creation", generating new competitive landscape, the new industry standard for enterprise development has brought new challenges. The new competitive landscape requires us to improve the control of core technology, requires constant innovation, and "American Creation" is the core of innovation. Business competition is already competing technologies and standards, the first to introduce products to meet the new situation, who will be market opportunities, technological innovation is the enterprise survival and development of the relentless pursuit. Enterprises should understand the situation, in the development model and the market structure adjustment, innovation, enhance the management capacity, enhance product quality and brand image, increase the international competitiveness of enterprises, savings for the upcoming spring force, as next lay the foundation for rapid development.
3, found to lead marketing, segmentation to find blue ocean. Every business wants to compete in the blue ocean environment, especially in the context of the financial crisis, how to increase market share, reduce competition, resistance, is our common wish. The new competitive landscape, lead to a new competitive situation, the new market demand, proliferation of new market segments. How to find new market demands, and how fast to adapt to the new product segment of the market, it is the premise of corporate competitive advantage to master, but also the development of enterprises to develop blue ocean strategy. Enterprises should fully understand and grasp the trend of economic development and trade policies and regulations on the automotive sector of the market impact of the timely detection of customers personalized, professional needs, develop products to meet customer needs in order to seize the market as fast as the first machine.
4, to strengthen joint cooperation, and enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises. With economic globalization, accelerating the globalization of markets, foreign competitors have moved into the United States, companies will be global competition. However, we now participate in international competition, there are still relatively backward technology, lack of management experience and financial strength of the gap. How to seize the opportunity, overcome challenges, it is we have to think about. America's huge market size, resource integration and globalization, the increasingly important U.S. market, domestic enterprises to actively adapt to the new market situation, and strive to develop multi-seeking opportunities to develop the level of the introduction of foreign advanced technology and management experience enhance the international competitiveness of enterprises.
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